The 2025 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook paints a compelling picture of transformation within global agrifood systems. Amidst shifting tides in production and consumption, the fishmeal and fish oil sector stands out for its adaptability.
The non-food use of wild-caught fish continues to decline, fluctuating between 15.2 Mt in El Niño years and 17.1 Mt during peak fishing years. This marks a significant shift from the 1990s, when up to 26 million tonnes of wild fish were diverted to fishmeal and fish oil. Today, the volume of fishmeal and fish oil produced has remained stable thanks to the increasing use of fish residues and by-products to support marine ingredients production. Such an input from circular practices may lead to an increased production: fishmeal remains a cornerstone of aquaculture feed, with 84% of global production expected to be consumed by the sector by 2034. By that time, global production of fishmeal and fish oil is projected to reach 5.9 Mt and 1.5 Mt, respectively, reflecting a 12% increase for both compared to the base period.
The expected increase by 37% in oilseed meals use for animal production confirms that they are integral to animal nutrition. While about a quarter of oilseeds and oil crops production by weight is used for direct human food consumption as vegetable oil, most is used as protein meal in animal feed. While pundits generally use a fish/fishmeal lens to focus on food/feed competition, such a competition is actually much more prevalent when it comes to crops.
As the Outlook’s scenario analysis suggests, eliminating undernourishment and cutting agricultural emissions by 7% is within reach, based on feed enhancements, including the judicious use of fishmeal and oils. Such a scenario hinges on a 10% increase in food production. Fish production clearly has a role to play – this can be done in a responsible manner when fishery management strategies are put in place.
In a world increasingly defined by climate constraints and nutritional demands, the fishmeal sector’s contribution manages to balance ecological responsibility with economic viability.