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El Niño remains a concern, with expectations of a prolonged coastal warming in Peru 

London, 5 October 2026

Globally, based on data from IFFO’s membership*, raw material supply intended for fishmeal and fish oil production improved in August 2026, with stronger intake in several regions outweighing ongoing softness elsewhere. August data points to a stronger month for global fishmeal and fish oil production. The year-to-date picture is still catching up from Peru's extended closure earlier in the season: cumulative fishmeal output of the countries investigated by IFFO based on members’ data* was running 45% behind the same period in 2025, with fish oil output down 26%. 

  • Chile, Spain and the U.S. led the gains, each pulling in notably more raw material than a year earlier and lifting the overall total above the year-earlier level. The U.S. fishing season will end in October. 

  • The African fishmeal and fish oil producing countries and Iceland/North Atlantic also saw softer availability. Denmark/Norway stayed broadly in line with year-earlier levels.  

  • Peru, accounting for 20% of global fishmeal and fish oil production in an average year, remained the main exception in August 2026, with raw material intake still very low as the fishing season in the North-Centre of the country stayed closed. On 15 September, the Peruvian Marine Research Institute (Imarpe) began a new assessment of the anchovy stock to determine the conditions affecting the species. The study is due to conclude on 7 October. 

“2026 is expected to deliver a reduction in the supply of marine ingredients, down to less than 4.6 million mt for fishmeal. This would represent the lowest global supply of fishmeal since the year 2016, when global supply was 4.53 million mt. Pelagic and demersal raw material would provide around 3.60 million mt of fishmeal, consistently down from previous years. On the contrary, fishmeal from the other species would slightly increase year on year. This year may also deliver a reduction in the global supply of fish oil down to 1.15 million mt. This would represent the lowest global supply since the year 2016, when total fish oil production was estimated at around 1.13 million mt. Pelagic and demersal raw material would provide around 605,000 mt of fish oil, consistently down from previous years. On the contrary, fish oil from the other species would continue to increase year on year, especially on the back of salmon and pangasius. Actual fishing activities during the final weeks of the year may lead to outcomes that might slightly differ from the current assessments and projections”, stated Dr Enrico Bachis, IFFO’s Market Research director. 

* This data is based on statistics shared by IFFO members in Chile, Denmark, Faroe Islands, Iceland, Ivory Coast, Mauritius, Norway, the UK, the USA, Peru, South Africa and Spain, accounting for 40% of global fishmeal production and 50% of fish oil output.  

In China, imported fishmeal stocks continued to slide at the end of September, staying well below average, while domestic output since the moratorium has disappointed.